Roger Urwin

UK home-biased equity portfolios have lost almost 3 per cent due to the BP oil crisis, in contrast to diversified global equity portfolios which have lost only 0.33 per cent, according to a MSCI research paper.

Since the BP oil crisis began on April 20, the company’s share price has halved, and the impact on domestic-biased institutional portfolios shows the merits of allocating assets globally, according to MSCI’s research bulletin ‘The BP Oil crisis spills over to UK domestic portfolios’, June 2010.

BP stock represented about 6 per cent of a UK home-biased equity portfolio (70 per cent UK/30 per cent All Country World Index), and such a large position would have led to a loss of about 2.9 per cent in such portfolios, in contrast to a more globally diversified position’s loss of 0.33 per cent.

In addition to the sharp dive in the BP share price, the mounting pressure on BP to suspend dividends will lower the MSCI UK Index from 3.61 per cent to 3.10 per cent, the paper said.

Before the spill, the total risks of the five top oil stocks were broadly in line, and their specific risks were “very low” at 2 per cent, the paper said. But, from June 14, the total risk of BP had more than doubled to 48.75 per cent with a “dramatic increase in its specific risk from 1 per cent about 18 per cent”.

Commenting on this, MSCI advisory director Roger Urwin said the oil crisis would spill into two areas: equity portfolio construction and the concepts of ESG investing (environmental, social and governance) and universal ownership.

Urwin, who is also global head of investment content at Towers Watson, said the UK investor “has been badly served by an outdated idea of investing domestically first and overseas second” (The BP Oil Spill and ESG, June 2010 MSCI).

Institutional investors would now need to “think less about the weights suggested by current market valuations and more about weights reflecting future economic prospects”.

This “successful incorporation of ESG in an investment process” would be a “differentiator in the future”, he said in his paper.

Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) from the Gulf swooped in to buy stakes in troubled financial institutions during the financial crisis – now there is speculation they are sizing up stakes in BP as the oil giant seeks to raise capital following the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

Investors from the Middle East were running a ruler over BP’s operations after the company’s announcement in June that it aimed to raise $10 billion by selling assets, Abu Dhabi daily newspaper The National reported this week.

Facing political and financial pressure, BP is understood to be selling non-core assets to raise cash, strengthen its business and direct more capital to clean-up efforts in the Gulf of Mexico.

Buying stakes in certain BP oil and gas projects – including production, processing and transport infrastructure and early-stage developments – would not be a financial or operational stretch for the Gulf region’s government-backed investors.

For weeks, analysts and energy industry consultants have speculated that the strategic investment arms of certain Arab governments would target BP shares at beaten down prices. This intensified when the company announced it would aim to raise capital.

Gulf SWFs have a history of investing in large companies in distress, and have garnered mixed results by doing so. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and the Qatar Investment Authority profited from realising their investments in British bank Barclays last year, but other deals have soured: ADIA is currently in arbitration with Citigroup regarding the terms of its $7.5 billion investment in the bank during November 2007.

Observers have speculated that instead of buying BP projects outright, Middle East investors could be more interested in providing capital for strategic partnerships in which BP would provide technical knowledge and experience, enabling it to redirect project funding commitments to the spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

In the Middle East, the oil giant runs gas projects in Algeria, Libya, Jordan and Oman. While these would be strategic interests for those nations, The National indicated that projects in the Caspian Sea would be attractive for Mubadala, a strategic investment company owned by the Abu Dhabi government, and the emirate-owned International Petroleum Investment Company.

BP’s lines into major liquefied natural gas deposits in Indonesia and north-eastern Australia, and coal-bed methane project in West Papua, are oriented towards Asia-Pacific markets which have recently been a focus for the governments of Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

Also, the Abu Dhabi National Energy Company, which is 75 per cent owned by the emirate, is exposed to oil production in the UK North Sea, and could be interested in expanding its presence there through selected BP projects.

The $300 billion China Investment Corporation (CIC) aims to sidestep official barriers to investing in the US by offloading its stakes in home-country banks.

The proposal would see the sovereign wealth fund (SWF) relinquish responsibility for the Chinese government’s majority stakes in the country’s largest banks, such as Bank of China, the Financial Times reported. The move would also end CIC’s status as a bank holding company in the eyes of the Federal Reserve.

This would free the CIC of certain restrictions – such as having to register with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and other measures constraining all US bank holding companies – when it makes investments in the US, where it is understood to be eyeing equities, bonds and real estate investments.

When the CIC was established in 2007, its stakes in domestic banks were valued at $70 billion, but it is not known if the bank will be recompensed for these holdings if it offers them up.

If the fund is paid for the shareholdings, its cash reserves will almost double, providing a lot of firepower for new investments but stripping it of future dividends – a reliable source of returns when many of its investments are too immature to outperform.

The FT cited unnamed bankers to assert the proposal was backed by Wang Qishan, the vice-premier in charge of finance.

The CIC was originally set up to invest China’s amassed foreign exchange reserves overseas, but became a key player in the country’s banking system when it took over Huijin, a holding company owning the government’s shares in big domestic banks.

This was seen as a coup for the finance ministry, since the creation of Huijin in 2003 was interpreted as a power grab by China’s central bank to curb the ministry’s power over the nation’s lenders and state-owned insurance companies.

Some senior policymakers in Beijing are believed to be pressuring for Huijin to be spun out of CIC and given ownership of the government’s stakes in financial groups.

Given these internal forces, some observers believe any restructuring of the CIC would more likely be attributed to domestic turf wars rather than gaining easier access to US markets.

Meanwhile, the CIC and AES Corporation, a global power generation and distribution business headquartered in the US, announced their proposed wind power joint venture in the US had been shelved. But AES stated its discussions with the CIC may resume as emerging US renewable energy legislation becomes clearer.

Proxy advisory firms have substantial influence on executive pay decision-making processes in US companies, however they have had little impact on the design of executive compensation programs, according to about half the respondents in a Towers Watson survey.

The Towers Watson”Executive Say-on-Pay Flash Survey”, conducted in June surveyed 251 US public and private corporations representing a cross section of industries, found only 12 per cent of respondents said they were very well prepared for the say-on-pay legislation, while 46 per cent said they were somewhat prepared, and just under a quarter (22 per cent) didn’t know if their companies were ready.

The financial reform legislation awaiting final action in the House and Senate includes a say-on-pay provision that would give shareholders of publicly traded US corporations a non-binding vote on executive pay.

Many companies indicated they were engaging with proxy advisors (44 per cent) to discuss areas of concern, meeting with key institutional shareholders (29 per cent) and preparing a formal communication plan (23 per cent).

“The influence of proxy advisory firms and institutional shareholders on executive compensation programs has increased steadily over the past few years and is likely to increase further in a say-on-pay world,” Andrew Goldstein, a leader in Towers Watson’s executive compensation business said. “As a result, we believe companies should be prepared for even closer scrutiny of their executive pay plans and policies, and will need to step up their communications with these groups through direct dialogue and even better proxy disclosure to be assured of strong support. Companies that fail to develop effective say-on-pay strategies and take steps now to make their compensation programs shareholder-friendly risk becoming lightning rods in this new environment.”

“Given the amount of work companies will need to do to adapt to life in a say-on-pay environment, it’s noteworthy that relatively few companies feel they are well prepared,” Goldstein said. “Companies understand that they’ll need to do more than simply describe their pay programs in their proxies and are beginning to take meaningful steps so that they are prepared.”

When asked what actions they were taking or planning in preparation for the say-on-pay legislation, nearly seven out of 10 said they were identifying potential executive pay issues and concerns in advance, while six in 10 said they were improving their compensation discussion and analysis to better explain the executive pay program’s rationale and appropriateness for the company.

Remy Briand

Following its merger with RiskMetrics, global index provider MSCI will launch a series of indexes and risk products incorporating ESG for the first time, and in doing so will propel ESG factors into the mainstream. Amanda White spoke to managing director, global head of index and applied research at MSCI, Remy Briand.

With more than 120,000 indexes and 2,400 organisations subscribing to its equity index products, MSCI can reasonably argue its status as the most widely-used provider of global equity benchmarks by institutional investors.

With this in mind the decision to launch a number of ESG index and risk products in September is a revolution for the industry which has supported the need to understand the concepts, risks and opportunities of ESG, but struggled to incorporate it into investment processes.

Managing director, global head of index and applied research at MSCI, Remy Briand, acknowledges that incorporating ESG factors provides some unique challenges.

“We’re going to discuss with clients, why would you incorporate ESG, and our view is that for asset owners ESG is taking into account externalities generated by companies which may affect the whole portfolio – traditional finance looks at companies in isolation. It is interesting for pension funds to look at those negative externalities,” he said.

“It’s an area that is difficult to measure sometimes but this year there’s been a number of very high profile cases such as FoxConn and BP which have been great examples.”

MSCI is working on an “extensive lineup” of indexes that will incorporate ESG, including country and industry indexes, as well as some specific indexes that cover SRI or the environment more specifically, and all will adopt the best-in-class methodology.

MSCI is also currently under way into how to include companies’ carbon footprints into an index, which will be done by adjusting the weights of companies in the index according to their carbon footprint.

The genesis for the ESG indexes comes from MSCI’s acquisition of RiskMetrics which was completed in June.

The RiskMetrics stable includes a wealth of ESG-related businesses including: Institutional Shareholders Services, the proxy voting service bought by RiskMetrics in 2007; Innovest Strategic Value Advisors which specialises in analysing companies’ performance on ESG factors groups and was bought in February 2009; and KLD which published the first research designed to evaluate the risks and opportunities associated with corporate social and environmental performance and was bought as recently in November 2009.

Of the top 50 institutional money managers worldwide, about 30 use KLD’s research to integrate ESG into their investment decisions. And the KLD 400 index, launched in May 1990 as the Domini 400 Social Index was the world’s first benchmark index built using ESG factors. MSCI will incorporate the history of that index into its new series.

(The suite of KLD indexes is currently calculated and licensed by FTSE).

With a rebranding, and a tweaking of the underlying core index to be consistent with the MSCI methodology, existing clients will be transitioned to the new index by the end of August.

“We plan to change the underlying index so that is consistent with the other MSCI indexes. It will use the best in class methodology, and the parent index will be an MSCI one, they will be part of the family and use the same criteria,” Briand said. “As far as ESG factors, we want to leverage the wealth of knowledge, experience and research of the existing ESG research group. RiskMetrics has built a very large research organisation and (has) about 60 people in ESG research.”

Briand says the best in class notion is defined by targeting 50 per cent of market cap by sector – and includes those with the highest ESG rating.

“The structure of each sector which will dictate how many stocks are included, but we are targeting 50 per cent. The major indexes will be the best-in-class, we will change some aspects of the methodology, but it is more of an evolution than strict criteria at the outset,” Briand says. “The timing will be to transition existing clients by the end of August which is when the quarterly rebalancing at MSCI is conducted, and from September 1 all those clients will have transitioned and we will then have a formal announcement.”

He says there has definitely been an increasing demand in ESG in general, and in particular MSCI sees a trend to integrate ESG into the mainstream investment process, rather than as a separate product. And, importantly, according to the data (see performance figures in the graph below) there is a performance pay-off as well.

“From that perspective for us we want to provide clear ratings and benchmarks to reflect those ratings, so there is alignment with the methodology of the rating and a benchmark.”

One of the benefits of bringing the indexes into the MSCI fold is that a direct comparison will be possible with the general index used by most institutional investors.

“We don’t have a direct comparison, but will be able to do that relatively easily when we have both series,” he says. “One thing we are communicating is that the ESG dimension takes into account aspects that may have a long-term effect and the stock market is discounting short-term factors. And this has performance analysis considerations for institutional investors.”

MSCI is also considering incorporating ESG factors into its risk products.

“It is definitely worth investigating and we are looking at it with Barra but it is at a very early stage,” he said.

Index performance at March 2010 1 year 3 year 5 year
10 year
KLD400 52.94 -2.21 2.68 -1.05
FTSE All World US 50.07 -3.77 2.43 -0.51
S&P 500 49.77 -4.17 1.92 -0.65
MSCI 49.09 -7.45 0.84 -1.75

Source: FactSet Research Systems, Inc, FTSE Group, MSCI

MSCI Global Investable Market Indices Methodology (pdf)

Fer Amkreutz
Fer Amkreutz

As part of an increasing focus on emerging markets, APG Asset Management, has an increasing interest in emerging markets. As part of that strategy an office in Hong Kong employs 28 staff to cover the Asian region. Amanda White spoke to the president of APG Asset Management Asia, Fer Amkreutz, about the perils and profits of a life in Asia.

The Hong Kong office of APG Asset Management, one of only two offices outside of The Netherlands, is part of a wider strategy to manage the move away from developed market equities.

Over the past six years, APG which manages assets for Dutch pension funds, including the giant €208 billion ($274 billion) Dutch pension fund ABP, has decreased the allocation to developed market equities by nearly 8 per cent, while the emerging markets exposure has increased to the current level of 7 per cent in the recently completed 2010-2012 strategic plan.

The office was set up in 2007, well after there was a significant allocation in the region, with assets in Japan, India, Australia and wider Asia.

“We already had investments here but realised if you don’t have your feet on the ground you won’t fully understand the region. You need to speak the language and be part of the network,” President of APG Asset Management Asia, Fer Amkreutz says.

Amkreutz, who has only been in the Hong Kong office for the past nine months, can’t emphasise enough the role that relationships play in doing investment management business in Asia.

“It goes back to Confucius, it is absolutely important, and if you’re new it’s harder,” he says.

But Mike Friedlander, COO/CFO of the APG Hong Kong subsidiary, says it is not unlike any other emerging market.

“It’s identical to other parts of emerging markets, being on the ground permits you entry into transactions you wouldn’t be part of if you were sitting in New York or Amsterdam,” he says.

Similarly Brett Gordon, a Brit who has worked in Asia for the past 17 years and now heads up the listed real estate business for APG in Asia, says business partnerships in Asia are very much a two way street.

“From a western view we are coming in and selecting partners, but really it is also about them selecting us as well.”

Unlike other parts of the world, where money talks, Gordon says investing in Asia can often be as much about a transfer of skills or knowledge as capital.

“There is no shortage of capital in Asia, so if someone needs your capital then you should think twice about investing,” he says.

“It’s about bringing an additional benefit, not just about the money, for example in a real estate context if we are able to bring a certain skill or green technology, we become a much more attractive partner.”

“But who you invest in is often more important than the opportunity itself.”

Like any emerging market, there are unique country risks and Friedlander warns investors to fully understand the risks with the opportunities.

“Due diligence is a must, it must be calculated and that includes due diligence of asset consultants. There must be a very tangible alignment of your strategic interest,” he says.

“There is a great “soft” factor in due diligence that – next to financial/economic factors – needs to be reviewed thoroughly.”

APG’s asset liability management study looks at the determinants of investing according to sectors, but also regions, and there is about 10 per cent invested in Asia (about €20 billion) across listed and non-listed real estate, infrastructure and emerging markets equities.

APG has more than 600 investment staff globally and there are 28 people in the Hong Kong office, 16 are investment professionals and 12 of those are local, with an increasing focus on bringing assets in house.

“Without localisation being on the ground it is not getting you there,” Amkreutz says. “We choose the people that work here but they choose us too. We have a responsibility as an employer as well as an investor. We take a bit of a European approach as well, in the development of skill and balance of life, but that doesn’t necessarily apply easily.”

Trust is a big part of doing business in Asia, the APG executives concur, with the Dutch proverb roughly translated that “trust comes on foot and goes on horseback” a close ally.

“We send the local staff to Holland to help them understand what a pension fund is and is not. It’s a mixed cultural office, but it is also an Asian office and we are cognisant of feng shui. And keep in mind that what you where used to “as a westerner”, or thought to be true, might not work out well in an Asian context.”

The balance between east and west business cultures as well as managing misconceptions are enduring aspects of conducting business in Asia.

Friedlander says there is a popular misconception about the management of environmental, social and governance issues in China.

“People get it here and are moving in that direction, it’s a complete misconception that they are not,” he says.

For example APG recently had engagement with a South East Asia company over a governance issue, and that company responded positively.

“They said no one has ever discussed this with us. They said we understand and will change. So they are willing to change. There is a sense that there is a lot of first generation money that has been made and they understand to hand it on to the second generation they have to make changes.”

There is an element of protecting reputation and the transfer of wealth.

While APG invests in all asset classes, there is a focus on real estate and infrastructure-type projects, which are constantly being assessed. Opportunities such as energy efficiency in China are of particular interest.

“The Chinese Government is completely committed as an economic imperative and have energy efficiency goals, we see this as a good opportunity,” Friedlander says.

And Gordon stresses economic impact is assessed alongside social and environmental impact.

“But it needs to stack up against other business opportunities,” he says.

One of the big lessons from three years in the region, is scale and patience.

“The trend to emerging markets is strong and will continue, but it is a gradual process. There is a strategic shift but it is not quick. It is estimated by 2040 India and China will be 50 per cent of GDP, so you need to be here,” Amkreutz says.

ABP strategic investment portfolio

Investment mix 2009 2010-2012
Government bonds 10% 10%
Price indexed bonds 9% 12%
Corporate bonds 21% 16%
Alternative inflation 7% 7%
Global TAA 2% 3%
Equities, developed markets 24% 20%
Equities, emerging markets 5% 7%
Private equity 5% 5%
Real estate 8% 9%
Infrastructure 1% 2%
Commodities 0% 1%
Opportunity fund 4% 4%
Hedge funds 4% 4%

Note: APG Asset Management client’s have discretion over their asset allocation